Avrupa hisse piyasaları hakkında genel bir değerlendirme.,
Bence güzel bir toparlama özeti olmuş. İşin özeti Piyasa ucuz ama büyüme endişleleri hala var. Downside limited olabilir ama gittiği zaman Amerika kadar gitmiyor.
Piyasayı “slightly bullish” olarak değerlendirebiliriz.
Mehmet
European Equities Seen Moving Past August Turmoil: Taking Stock
2024-08-20 06:21:05.948 GMT
By Michael Msika and Sagarika Jaisinghani
(Bloomberg) — With all the caution on the outlook for
stocks for the rest of the year, one consensus conviction
remains among market strategists: European equities are likely
to make new highs.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is seen ending the year at 535
points — about 4.6% above Friday’s close, according to the
median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 16 strategists. That
implies surpassing the record high set back in May. Based on the
average target, there is still upside, but only 1.4%.
European stocks have been quick to recoup losses as global
markets rebounded after the wild volatility episode at the start
of August. Mixed economic data and a dramatic unwind of crowded
trades were not enough to derail the rally durably, with
investors banking on interest rate cuts to support equity
valuations. Meanwhile, the earnings season was reassuring. That
kept strategists relatively bullish.
For tables on the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 polls click here,
for a table on the DAX survey here, and for a table on the FTSE
100 here.
“Our target is based on zero earnings growth this year and
next so it’s not ambitious,” says UBS strategist Gerry Fowler,
who sees the Stoxx 600 at 540 by year-end. The market consensus
is for about 4% EPS growth this year and 10% in 2025. “The
driver, therefore, is valuations. Lower bond yields help but
credit spreads continue to grind tighter too.”
Europe Inc. enjoyed a better-than-expected earnings season
in the second quarter, with MSCI Europe companies posting a 2.3%
rise in profits. That was the first year-on-year increase since
early 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
Intelligence. Yet that strength hasn’t really flowed through to
stock prices, with the benchmark still down about 2% since the
season began mid-July amid lingering worries about the economy.
Analysts have been reluctant to cut their forecasts, and
that’s keeping valuations in check. The Stoxx 600 is trading
below its 10-year average forward P/E, even after the latest
bounce, as shown in the chart below.
While he expects stocks to be slightly down from current
levels, Societe Generale strategist Roland Kaloyan sees limited
downside. The market should find support from central bank rate
cuts, cautious spending by corporates, healthy balance sheets,
as well as the lack of overcrowding in Europe. “Investors have
been on the sidelines on European equities, helping to prevent
excessive valuations,” he says.
Over the past couple of months, the range of forecasts has
narrowed, with less downside seen based on the most bearish
targets. Bank of America strategists were the latest to raise
their view, lifting their target to 475 from 460, though they
are keeping their cautious view. That leaves TFS and JPMorgan as
the most bearish strategists.
“We remain negative on European equities and cyclicals
versus defensives,” say BofA strategists led by Sebastian
Raedler. “The market ructions in response to the weak July
payrolls print highlight how bad macro data is once again bad
news for the market, as investors‘ focus has shifted from
inflation worries to growth concerns.”
Investors are worried in the near term. According to the
August Bank of America fund managers survey, 48% of European
investors expect near-term downside for European equities, up
from 18% in July, with the share that sees near-term upside
falling to 45% from 78%. That implies a net 4% are now seeing a
near-term pullback, compared with a net 60% seeing upside last
month. Longer-term, conviction is still positive, with 62%
seeing upside over 12 months — though that’s also down from 75%
last month.
MARKETS:
* European index futures are pointing to a slightly higher open,
after a strong handover from Wall Street, as the S&P 500 climbed
for an eighth day, the longest winning streak this year, on bets
the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September. Asian
stocks follow through with the MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% after
paring some gains. Japanese indexes lead after yen weakens back
to the 147 handle. The Nikkei jumps 2%. Kospi, Taiex and ASX 200
indexes are in the green. Hong Kong and China benchmarks
underperform. Oil extends its biggest drop in two weeks after
Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza. Euro Stoxx 50
futures are up 0.2%, contracts on the S&P 500 are little
changed, and Nasdaq 100 futures are rising 0.1% respectively.
SECTORS IN FOCUS:
* European cybersecurity stocks could be active Tuesday after US
firm Palo Alto Networks issued an upbeat outlook and boosted its
share buyback program.
* European oil stocks could be active on Tuesday after oil
extended the biggest drop in two weeks after the US said Israel
accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza, potentially easing
supply risks as concerns about the global demand outlook mount.
